How Prediction Markets Upstaged Election Polls
Voters, donors and media increasingly use the betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to forecast election outcomes. Critics warn of new risks to democracy.
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Voters, donors and media increasingly use the betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket to forecast election outcomes. Critics warn of new risks to democracy.
Odds of a Fed hike at the 27-28 October meeting jumped 29 points to 47.5% on Polymarket after the September inflation report (14 Oct). The post Fed Hike Odds Hit 47.5% After US Inflation appeared first on The Rio Times.
Prediction markets tout themselves as โtruth machines,โ but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets.
Prediction markets make Flรกvio Bolsonaro the clear favourite to beat Lula on 25 October. What Polymarket and Kalshi say, and why the odds matter. The post What Prediction Markets Say About Brazilโs Runoff appeared first on The Rio Times.
Polymarket has hired a former partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as its head of institutional growth, the startupโs latest high-profile addition as it courts Wall Street.